Tactical asset allocation systems

Harlyn Research designs tactical asset allocation systems for professional investors. We work with institutions, wealth managers, and private banks to create high-performance, low-risk investment strategies. Our products cover asset allocation, equity region selection and sector rotation models, all of which can be tailored to a variety of benchmarks.

Probability based investment

We use a probability-based approach, which aims to deliver the best available return per unit of risk at each stage of the investment cycle. Maximising returns and minimising volatility have equal importance. All the models shown on this website are long-only and do not use leverage or hedging strategies. Our approach is simple to implement via futures or ETFs based on some of the most liquid markets in the world.

Superior return per unit of risk

Extensive back-testing shows that our approach generates superior long-run returns, in absolute and risk-adjusted terms. The approach is also designed to produce shorter and smaller drawdowns, when markets fall. Our primary focus is absolute total return, but the process can be adapted with the aim of beating an index in risk-adjusted terms.

How to use this web site

Visitors are welcome to browse the site and to read about our process and investment philosophy. In the right hand panel of this page you can see the five year history of the six flagship models published on this website, as well as an extract of our most recent blogs. This is just a fraction of the information available to registered users.

Register now

Registration is free, and only takes a couple of minutes. Registered users can access the history of the models going back to 1996, complete with recommended weightings and key performance indicators. Users can access the archive of our sector rotation reports. Register now.

Download an introduction to Harlyn

Harlyn brochurePlease click on the link (left) to download a short introduction to Harlyn Research (PDF, 2.2MB).

Recent Blog Posts

  • Messy and Inconsistent
  • Wednesday, March 22nd, 2017
  • The rotation into US defensives has broadened over the last two weeks. There is a potential contradiction with the high exposure to equities recommended by our asset allocation model. We look at the maths underlying our asset allocation decision, historical precedents for US equities being overbought and international equity comparisons. A 5-10% correction followed by renewed strength, just about fits all the evidence.

  • Pick Your Own Narrative
  • Wednesday, March 15th, 2017
  • Our US Equity sector model is changing its mind on defensive sectors. The bottom came in early February, but the first material increase was only three weeks ago and was mostly down to Healthcare. Since then, the theme has broadened and it is no longer just a reaction to weakness in the commodity-related sectors.

  • Parlour Games with Volatility
  • Wednesday, March 8th, 2017
  • The new ultra-low volatility regime throws up some curious implications for equity sectors. Who knew that US Technology and EU Industrials are now attractive to risk-averse investors? What about Healthcare, which could deliver significant returns if investors were just prepared to give it the benefit of the new paradigm.

  • Self-Help in Emerging Markets
  • Wednesday, March 1st, 2017
  • It’s time to look at EM Equities again. Our view is that international investors should be selective and go for countries which are capable of self-help, like India, but not Russia. That means working with the preferences and opinions of local investors, not against them.