Tactical asset allocation systems

Harlyn Research designs tactical asset allocation systems for professional investors. We work with institutions, wealth managers, and private banks to create high-performance, low-risk investment strategies. Our products cover asset allocation, equity region selection and sector rotation models, all of which can be tailored to a variety of benchmarks.

Probability based investment

We use a probability-based approach, which aims to deliver the best available return per unit of risk at each stage of the investment cycle. Maximising returns and minimising volatility have equal importance. All the models shown on this website are long-only and do not use leverage or hedging strategies. Our approach is simple to implement via futures or ETFs based on some of the most liquid markets in the world.

Superior return per unit of risk

Extensive back-testing shows that our approach generates superior long-run returns, in absolute and risk-adjusted terms. The approach is also designed to produce shorter and smaller drawdowns, when markets fall. Our primary focus is absolute total return, but the process can be adapted with the aim of beating an index in risk-adjusted terms.

How to use this web site

Visitors are welcome to browse the site and to read about our process and investment philosophy. In the right hand panel of this page you can see the five year history of the six flagship models published on this website, as well as an extract of our most recent blogs. This is just a fraction of the information available to registered users.

Register now

Registration is free, and only takes a couple of minutes. Registered users can access the history of the models going back to 1996, complete with recommended weightings and key performance indicators. Users can access the archive of our sector rotation reports. Register now.

Download an introduction to Harlyn

Harlyn brochurePlease click on the link (left) to download a short introduction to Harlyn Research (PDF, 2.2MB).

Recent Blog Posts

  • The Uncrowned King
  • Wednesday, December 7th, 2016
  • Nothing illustrates the cumulative distortions QE has imposed on US financial markets, better than the historic returns of a balanced 50/50 portfolio relative to cash. The current upswing has lasted almost eight years in an unbroken trend, as opposed the usual five. Our probability indicators suggest that we are getting close to a break of trend. If the Fed raises rates by more than expected in 2017, cash may yet be king.

  • In Praise of Cash
  • Wednesday, November 30th, 2016
  • US cash deposits are a neglected asset class. Our models suggest that US Treasuries, Gold and Investment Grade bonds have a low or no-better-than-evens chance of beating cash on a risk-adjusted basis. If you don’t have to own them, you should be reducing your exposure. Our numbers do not include the risk that the Fed decides to surprise on the upside in 2017.

  • Political Risk in Europe
  • Wednesday, November 23rd, 2016
  • We all wonder what happens if the Italian government loses the constitutional referendum on December 4th. Most investors understand the negative implications for France, but our analysis suggests that Belgium would also suffer badly. Germany is our preferred safe-haven, but our second choice is Spain.

  • Our President, Your Problem
  • Wednesday, November 16th, 2016
  • Last week we focussed on the prospects for CNY USD exchange rate in the wake of Mr Trump’s election. This week we add falling EM equities, unstable asset allocation models and rising political risk in the Eurozone to the list of issues which confront international investors. We also note that Japan is hardly affected by any of them.