Tactical asset allocation systems

Harlyn Research designs tactical asset allocation systems for professional investors. We work with institutions, wealth managers, and private banks to create high-performance, low-risk investment strategies. Our products cover asset allocation, equity region selection and sector rotation models, all of which can be tailored to a variety of benchmarks.

Probability based investment

We use a probability-based approach, which aims to deliver the best available return per unit of risk at each stage of the investment cycle. Maximising returns and minimising volatility have equal importance. All the models shown on this website are long-only and do not use leverage or hedging strategies. Our approach is simple to implement via futures or ETFs based on some of the most liquid markets in the world.

Superior return per unit of risk

Extensive back-testing shows that our approach generates superior long-run returns, in absolute and risk-adjusted terms. The approach is also designed to produce shorter and smaller drawdowns, when markets fall. Our primary focus is absolute total return, but the process can be adapted with the aim of beating an index in risk-adjusted terms.

How to use this web site

Visitors are welcome to browse the site and to read about our process and investment philosophy. In the right hand panel of this page you can see the five year history of the six flagship models published on this website, as well as an extract of our most recent blogs. This is just a fraction of the information available to registered users.

Register now

Registration is free, and only takes a couple of minutes. Registered users can access the history of the models going back to 1996, complete with recommended weightings and key performance indicators. Users can access the archive of our sector rotation reports. Register now.

Download an introduction to Harlyn

Harlyn brochurePlease click on the link (left) to download a short introduction to Harlyn Research (PDF, 2.2MB).

Recent Blog Posts

  • Untangling the Currency Effect
  • Wednesday, September 13th, 2017
  • What would happen to investors’ risk appetite if global currency markets stabilised at their current levels? In our view, the cumulative shock from the weak dollar has already reduced the recommended allocation to equities for most developed markets. This includes the US, though not by very much. The only way to avoid further reductions is for the dollar to retrace some its losses. If all major currencies stay where they are, risk appetite in most countries is likely to trend lower. The only significant exception is China.

  • The Probability of Loss
  • Wednesday, September 6th, 2017
  • US investors are being bailed out of a tight situation by the weaker dollar. The chances of losing money on their overseas equity positions are much lower than they are in domestic fixed income. The same is true for domestic equities. They can afford to do nothing, but euro-based investors face a much tougher choice.

  • Winter Is Coming
  • Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017
  • We fully expect a correction in US and global equities at some stage during the Autumn, but unless two or more of our risk-scenarios crystallize at the same time, we don’t think it will be more than 10%. There is too much residual momentum, especially outside the USA, and even after a correction, realised volatility will be below its long-run average.

  • Euro-Schizophrenia
  • Thursday, July 27th, 2017
  • International investors are still in love with Eurozone equities, but the strength of the euro is starting to cause problems for domestic investors. The euro is probably overbought in the short-term, but further strength later this year would cramp Eurozone earnings growth in 2018 and tighten monetary conditions in which would allow the ECB to delay interest rate rises and shrinking its balance sheet.