Results for search of category: Government Bonds

Walking, Not Charging

If we understand Janet Yellen correctly, there are no constraints in the real economy which critically affect the speed at which US interest rates can rise. But there must be a critical constraint, and we believe it is the requirement not to upset the low volatility environment in US equities. If we are right, the Fed wants an environment where single digit returns from equity are seen as risk-efficient, and a correction does not turn into a bear market. If they manage this, the bull market can carry on, but it will be walking not charging.  [Read More... ]


International investors are still in love with Eurozone equities, but the strength of the euro is starting to cause problems for domestic investors. The euro is probably overbought in the short-term, but further strength later this year would cramp Eurozone earnings growth in 2018 and tighten monetary conditions in which would allow the ECB to delay interest rate rises and shrinking its balance sheet.  [Read More... ]

Peak Euphoria

Our portfolio has had Eurozone Equities as its #1 position since the middle of March. We now see evidence of indiscriminate buying, with investors scrambling for exposure to the benchmark and not caring about sector or country tilts. Our exposure is now at a level which has only been matched three times by any equity region since the onset of QE.   [Read More... ]

Self-Help in Emerging Markets

It’s time to look at EM Equities again. Our view is that international investors should be selective and go for countries which are capable of self-help, like India, but not Russia. That means working with the preferences and opinions of local investors, not against them.  [Read More... ]

Three Unrelated Ideas

Nothing has happened to move the dial on any of our major themes; so this a time for housekeeping and some small ideas. The three we have chosen are: reducing exposure to the Energy sector, using Spanish government bonds as the safe-haven against election shocks in Europe, and increasing exposure to UK and Eurozone Small Caps.  [Read More... ]

Low Hurdle

Many analysts cite a possible break in the regime of low volatility as a potential threat to the performance US Equities. They are right, but they only have half the story. A rise in equity volatility only matters if it is NOT accompanied by a rise in Treasury volatility. If it is, there is no change to the hurdle rate which determines the risk-efficiency of equities relative to bonds  [Read More... ]

Forecast Blindness

Our charts suggest that US Treasuries are oversold and that equity sectors like US Financials are overbought. Even if forecasts of the new Trumpflation era are correct, investors still need to price the risk of non-delivery. Where better than in those assets which reacted strongest when the new era dawned?  [Read More... ]

The Uncrowned King

Nothing illustrates the cumulative distortions QE has imposed on US financial markets, better than the historic returns of a balanced 50/50 portfolio relative to cash. The current upswing has lasted almost eight years in an unbroken trend, as opposed the usual five. Our probability indicators suggest that we are getting close to a break of trend. If the Fed raises rates by more than expected in 2017, cash may yet be king.  [Read More... ]

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